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A caminho da guerra
- Estados Unidos e China conseguirãoescapar da Armadilha de Tucídides? [Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?]
- Narrated by: Dalton Barrone
- Length: 12 hrs and 12 mins
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A caminho da guerra
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Publisher's summary
A tensão crescente entre China e Estados Unidos vem alarmando o mundo. Conforme esse panorama se delineia, fica cada vez mais nítido que os dois países parecem a caminho da guerra e que as consequências disso serão mundialmente catastróficas. Essa sensação de inevitabilidade foi descrita como a Armadilha de Tucídides.
Em seu tempo, o historiador da Grécia Antiga que deu nome à expressão observou que “a ascensão de Atenas e o consequente temor instilado em Esparta tornaram a guerra inevitável”. Desde então, a armadilha descrita por Tucídides passou a designar o momento em que uma potência em ascensão ameaça tomar o lugar do poder dominante. Ao longo dos últimos cinco séculos tais condições ocorreram 16 vezes—e em 12 delas uma guerra eclodiu.
Hoje, enquanto uma China irrefreável desafia a já consolidada supremacia dos Estados Unidos, essas nações correm o risco de protagonizar um conflito de repercussão devastadora. As promessas de seus presidentes de tornar seus países “grandes novamente” são a base da política externa de ambos e oferecem um vislumbre sombrio da construção do décimo sétimo cenário. Conflitos comerciais, ataques cibernéticos, a crise da Coreia ou um acidente marítimo podem facilmente transformar os constantes desentendimentos entre as duas potências em uma guerra declarada.
Em A caminho da guerra, o professor de Harvard Graham Allison alia história aos fatos atuais para explicar o mecanismo eterno da Armadilha de Tucídides. Ao analisar o impacto do crescimento da China sobre os Estados Unidos e sobre a ordem mundial, Graham esmiúça as difíceis medidas que poderiam ser adotadas a fim de impedir um desastre de magnitude planetária.
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